Robots on Mars, Killer Drones and a Robot Army: The AI Arms Race Has Begun
While the application of AI in aerospace and defence is not new, its impact continues to grow at a pace that most governments are struggling to keep up with. By aerospace, we mean the branch of technology and industry concerned with aviation and space flight. By defence, we mean the military assets, measures and resources for protecting a country and its interests. The two increasingly overlap.
Investment in AI in aerospace and defence varies by country and most nations keep their spending classified, so no definitive global estimate exists. What we do know is that in fiscal 2017, the US Defence Department planned to spend US$15 billion on AI solely to test robotics and human-machine collaboration in combat strategies, including advanced exoskeletons and drone capabilities. The race is well underway.
NASA: AI Has Been Flying Itself for Over a Decade
In aerospace, AI is widely applied. NASA uses AI to detect and capture images of volcanic eruptions on Earth and alert government agencies of pending eruptions. It also uses quantum computers for complex problem-solving, speech recognition, air traffic management, planning robotic missions to other planets and supporting operations in mission control centres.
NASA’s Earth Observing Mission 1 satellite used some AI to fly itself for over a decade, the longest that AI-empowered technology had ever flown a spacecraft. It had an autonomous scheduling function that decided on its own when to send critical data to humans on Earth for analysis. NASA also uses AI to power its robotic rover autonomously driving on Mars, exploring the surface and sending data back to Earth.
ALPHA, AI software being developed in the US using deep learning, is being planned for armed combat jets to help pilots make tactical decisions. If successful, ALPHA may reduce unpredictability in flight decisions caused by external conditions such as weather. It would take in sensory data, organize it, map a combat scenario and execute decisions in under a millisecond. In simulations, ALPHA defeated human tacticians in a shoot-out, even with handicaps on speed, turning, missile capacity and sensors. The US military is planning to implement ALPHA to assist pilots with tactical and situational inputs during combat missions.
NASA’s Cold Atom Laboratory, launching in August 2017 on the International Space Station, will be the world’s first in-space demonstration of quantum computing, deploying quantum computer technology originally created in Vancouver, Canada.
Boeing has partnered with Carnegie Mellon University to establish an Aerospace Data Analytics Lab to process vast amounts of big data for the aerospace industry, deploying machine learning to optimize Boeing’s design and manufacturing process and reduce construction costs.
China Is Moving Fast.
China has expressed its intention to become a leading power in space. Though details of its space program are largely classified, China plans to have astronauts on the Moon by 2036. President Xi Jinping wants China’s space missions to drive national innovation in robotics, aviation and AI. The Chinese government is tripling investment in space sciences to US$2.3 billion, and China’s aerospace and aviation industry is expected to expand to US$8 billion in value within the next five to ten years.
Several Chinese aerospace companies have recently launched. OneSpace is developing a 59-ton launch vehicle with a projected lift-off in 2018. ExPace is developing a solid-fuel rocket for companies to send small satellites into orbit. Landspace is developing a liquid-fuel rocket.
China is also investing in a dark matter-seeking satellite, an experimental quantum communications satellite with potential breakthroughs in cryptography, and a network of geolocation and Earth-observation satellites to collect data. That satellite network will position China to generate and sell big data to the private and public sector globally.
Russia Is Sending a Robot to Space
Russia announced it would aim to send a robot named Fedor to the International Space Station within five years. Fedor is already in training. It can walk, crawl, lift, shoot guns and drive. Fedor was developed by Energia, the Russian rocket manufacturer, in partnership with the TSNIImash Laboratory of Space Robotics.
The Pentagon Is Spending $15 Billion. And That Is Just the Start.
In defence, AI plays a critical and growing role. The US government is spending up to US$15 billion on AI in defence in 2017 to fund war gaming, experimentation and new technologies, with a view to maintaining military dominance. Autonomous military systems are central to that strategy, but the future of AI in defence depends on whether engineers can design systems with independent capacity for knowledge and expert-based reasoning.
One significant impediment is the shortage of roboticists and engineers willing to work in defence. Because funding lags behind the private sector, attracting top talent is difficult. The growing gap in tech expertise raises the concern that autonomous systems for defence may become deficient, eventually forcing the US to lease AI services from the private sector and fall behind in defence readiness compared to other nations.
Much of US defence AI development is conducted at Los Alamos National Laboratory, one of the largest science and technology institutions in the world. It conducts multidisciplinary research across areas including nuclear weapons, much of it classified.
The Drone Swarm Is Already Airborne
Drone technology is increasingly central to defence. Global drone spending is expected to reach US$123 billion over the next decade and US$14 billion annually by 2025. Integrating drone systems is projected to generate US$82 billion in economic impact by 2025 in the US alone, and create more than 100,000 jobs.
China and Russia are developing artificially intelligent microdrones that act autonomously, designed to work as a swarm, communicating and making decisions together, including adaptive formation flying. They are expected to be used for missions in the future. In China, there is a large drone entertainment (similar to fireworks) and drone racing culture, which is important because it forms the basis of training.
Drones and robotic killing machines are expected to revolutionize warfare with a first-lead advantage, enabling greater destruction of human life and infrastructure without corresponding risk to the initiating country. The most revolutionary development will be drone swarms led by China and Russia.
The legal and ethical questions that arise have not been resolved. They urgently need to be.
Everyone Else Is Catching Up
In the EU, defence spending is being increased after a 2016 report found that the bloc risks falling behind due to the absence of technological building blocks such as robotics and AI. The EU is contemplating investing 500 million euros annually on military research innovation from 2021 to 2027. The UK announced an investment of 100,000 pounds in 2017 for a research fund dedicated to AI for defence.
China’s defence AI spending is classified, but in 2016 China spent US$225 billion investing in or acquiring technology companies, targeting strategic industries including big data, AI and robotics with potential military applications.
Russia’s Killer Robots Can Decide to Shoot Without Asking
Russia is building a robot army. The Russian Chief of General Staff has publicly disclosed that Russia is constructing a complete roboticized military unit capable of independently conducting military operations. Russia’s United Instrument Manufacturing Corporation has developed software that can be installed on any robotic system to allow it to make autonomous lethal decisions, including carrying out attacks on enemy artillery without human intervention. The system uses AI to locate a human on a battlefield, or in a living room.
Creating and coding machines to autonomously terminate a human being raises profound and unresolved legal and ethical concerns. It is one of the most pressing questions in AI law. And almost nobody in the legal profession is talking about it.
In the US, Modus Operandi, a Florida-based software company, is developing AI that applies human-like logic to find correlations among pieces of information to detect terrorists. Counter-terrorism involves time-consuming pattern analysis of intelligence and big data. An AI system that automates that intellectual analysis could produce faster results, save lives and protect critical infrastructure.
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